Two news stories from yesterday:

– The Wall Street Journal reported reported that the trend toward “trading up” is slowing for many consumer products.

– The Brewers Association reported craft beer sales roared ahead at an 11% clip in the first half of 2006.

If the former trend continues through the coming months how long can the latter trend go on?

Any answer is a guess. For instance, Information Resources Inc. (IRI), which takes most of its data from grocery stores and supercenters, reported craft sales grew 12-13% in the first half of the year and dollar sales were up 15-16%. Those numbers don’t include beers from many smaller brewers, and certainly not from brewpubs, but they indicate the inroads craft breweries have made.

Also, the WSJ story notes that because they are less likely to “trade up” that “middle-income families visiting more mass merchants and grocery stores than specialty outlets.” Since they are more likely to find great beer in those stores than before they may consider that beer more necessity than “affordable luxury.”

Plenty of reasons remain to be cautious. The Journal reports that Starbucks, Whole Foods and specialty-sandwich chain Panera Bread Co. all recently reported disappointing sales and pointed to higher gas price. Restaurants catering to middle-income consumers are seeing a sales slump too.

WSJ concludes by consulting Michael Silverstein, who co-authored the book Trading Up. He said middle-income shoppers are still trading up for high-end items, but are “‘making much more deliberate choices and being much more tough-minded about what they want. . . . The investment thesis has to be: Are you generating heat? The companies that aren’t are in trouble.”

For now at least, craft brewers have plenty of heat.

It’s fair to say that Anheuser-Busch’s “Here’s To Beer” campaign has not exactly been embraced by the craft beer community, and certainly not blogs (like this one) that have commented on it.

But compare it to Miller’s “Man Laws” commercials and website. Which is about beer?

First, in defense of both “Man Laws” and the “Here’s To Beer” spots like the one with Mike Imperioli and Bogey, these commercials remind us that when you drink a beer it’s not always just about the beer. For instance, I have an uncle who considers Beck’s Dark about as good as it gets – and by golly it happens to taste pretty good to me when I have a beer with him. My father, rest his soul, didn’t ask me to drink Miller Lite with him. That might have been the real test.

But when I watched the “Man Laws” commercials or visited the website (with the most obnoxious age verification ever seen) I see no mention of flavor [although it appears that Miller with be attacking A-B on that front using another set of commercials.]

At least the “Here’s To Beer” site is about beer. On the last visit – speaking of age verification, how come the site can’t rememeber me and I have to log in every time? – I saw a suggestion to serve an imperial stout with a chocolate stout. Last time I looked A-B didn’t brew an imperial stout, to they weren’t just pimping their own beer.

Now here’s why I’m writing about this. The Milwaukee Journal Sentintel (yes, Miller’s hometown newspaper) had a story about the success of “Man Laws” that’s appeared in several newspapers.

It reports that since being activated in May, www.manlaws.com has recorded nearly 14 million visits, including more than 542,000 unique visits.

Meanwhile, a press release from A-B in late July stated that since February www.herestobeer.com received “more than 300,000 hits.”

Looks line “Man Laws” is a pretty clear winner. Can’t see why I would think that is good.

Gee, I’m not sure the article was that bad.

Both Jay Brooks and Beercraft Blog take a piece in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette to task for an article headlined “Beer sales falling flat as wine, other beverages grow in popularity.”

Granted, the story had its problems, but having just returned from a couple of weeks of grabbing newspapers and magazines I don’t often read I was impressed by the amount of positive attention craft beer is getting. I didn’t see anything comparable for wine or spirits.

In Champaign (Illinois) a local newspaper story offered kudos to the Blind Pig, an old/new bar who owner has shifted his emphasis from music to beer.

In St. Louis, Sauce Magazine’s Readers’ Choice 2006 poll featured the results of Favorite Local Brewery (Saint Louis Brewery/Schlafly beers) and Favorite Beer Selection (Growlers Pub) on the same page with Favorite Butcher and Favorite Coffee Roaster.

In Chicago, Where Magazine – stocked in hotel rooms throughout the metropolitan area – reported on “Beer, Glorious Beer.” It included four breweries and four brewpubs.

The Chicago Reader, a leading alternative newspaper, supplemented a feature on ice cream floats with a piece about beer floats.

In Milwaukee, Travelhost Magazine, another hotel supplement, reviewed several beer friendly restaurants.

That’s a lot of positive coverage.

And it’s not on the business pages. Business writers have long grouped big beer and little beer together when it comes to spotting trends or comparing beer sales to sales of spirits. That’s not going to stop.

Business stories report on what has (or is) happening. These other stories help influence what (is or) will be occuring.