{"id":6079,"date":"2011-03-21T12:24:18","date_gmt":"2011-03-21T18:24:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/appellationbeer.com\/blog\/?p=6079"},"modified":"2011-03-22T13:08:19","modified_gmt":"2011-03-22T19:08:19","slug":"the-wisdom-of-beer-crowds-or-not","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/appellationbeer.com\/blog\/the-wisdom-of-beer-crowds-or-not\/","title":{"rendered":"The wisdom of beer crowds, or not"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.appellationbeer.com\/images\/20110321-roadtobend.jpg\" alt=\"Where are the hops?\" class=\"centered\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Surely you are familiar with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/wp-srv\/artsandliving\/foodanddining\/features\/2011\/beer-madness\/\">Beer Madness<\/a> at the <em>The Washington Post<\/em>. If not, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/wp-dyn\/content\/article\/2011\/03\/08\/AR2011030804127.html\">read this.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Basically, beer fans get to vote between two beers &#151; for instance, right now you can pick <em>Breckenridge Vanilla Porter<\/em> or <em>Duck-Rabbit Milk Stout<\/em> &#151; a panel of eleven has tasted blind. Then the paper reveals the results and another round commences based on the beers the panelists favor. <\/p>\n<p>Had I not been traveling Oregon&#8217;s sometimes snow-covered roads* in order to learn the mysteries of hop genetics, quality pelletizing and other information that belongs in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fortheloveofhops.com\">a book about hops<\/a> I would have liked to have handicapped the tournament. <\/p>\n<p><em>* The road got more exciting after I took the picture at the top. Eventually I came to flashing lights that demanded vehicles have chains or traction tires. My travel tip to you is: visit hop country when hops are growing.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Well, maybe not the whole thing. But I&#8217;d just read one of way too many analyses about how to win your office March Madness pool; this one based on find value. The example was Texas, which was undervalued (correctly, it seems) since a respected numbers guy gave Texas something like a 5 percent chance to win the tournament and at that moment more like 3 percent of people entering some online mega-pool picked Texas.<\/p>\n<p>You&#8217;ll have to trust me on this, but I was going to suggest that <em>Great Divide Claymore Scotch Ale<\/em> offered similar value. At the time, <em>Founders Dirty Bastard<\/em> was already burying <em>Claymore<\/em>, which is such a beautifully balanced beer I feel compelled to comment on how that balance and finesse is what seems to set Great Divide&#8217;s beer apart every time I drink one. In fact, <em>Dirty Bastard<\/em> won the popularity contest, 1,017-351. The panelists preferred <em>Claymore.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m not really that brilliant, but you knew that. Because I had a 50 percent chance to be right. This contest is a random walk through better beer land. That&#8217;s not a bad thing. I love <em>Edmund Fitzgerald Porter<\/em> &#038;#151 one of these days the T-shirt I bought in 1993 is simply going to fall apart &#151; but it received more than 70 percent of votes from fans. The panelists preferred it over <em>Hoppin&#8217; Frog Silk Porter<\/em> by a 6-5 vote, which probably better represents the difference between two. <\/p>\n<p>Personal preference is good, and the contest is fun. But I&#8217;m not sure it is different than flipping a coin. In the first round, the panelists and crowd agreed sixteen times. They disagreed fifteen times (<em>Anchor Old Foghorn<\/em> and <em>Weyerbacher Blithering Idiot<\/em> tied at 512 &#151; or 32 pints apiece &#151; in the popularity contest. It doesn&#8217;t get more random that that.<\/p>\n<p>My value bet for this round? How about <em>Smuttynose <del datetime=\"2011-03-22T19:07:50+00:00\">Finest Kind<\/del> Finestkind IPA?<\/em> A 1,228-357 underdog to <em>Bell&#8217;s Two-Hearted<\/em> it captured eight of the eleven panelists&#8217; palates. Now it is running way behind <em>Lagunitas Maximus.<\/em> <\/p>\n<p>(And speaking of fans, check out how many votes have been lodged in the showdown between <em>Evolution Rise Up Stout<\/em> and <em>Port City Porter.<\/em>) <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Surely you are familiar with Beer Madness at the The Washington Post. If not, read this. Basically, beer fans get to vote between two beers &#151; for instance, right now you can pick Breckenridge Vanilla Porter or Duck-Rabbit Milk Stout &#151; a panel of eleven has tasted blind. Then the paper reveals the results and &#8230; <a title=\"The wisdom of beer crowds, or not\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/appellationbeer.com\/blog\/the-wisdom-of-beer-crowds-or-not\/\" aria-label=\"More on The wisdom of beer crowds, or not\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[292],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6079","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-musing"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4wTn-1A3","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/appellationbeer.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6079","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/appellationbeer.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/appellationbeer.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/appellationbeer.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/appellationbeer.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6079"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/appellationbeer.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6079\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6090,"href":"https:\/\/appellationbeer.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6079\/revisions\/6090"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/appellationbeer.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6079"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/appellationbeer.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6079"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/appellationbeer.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6079"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}