(If you can’t see the image it says, “Based on declining sales, and making room in the portfolio for new beer, Mothership Wit is getting shelved.”)

In contrast, Blue Moon Belgian White and Shock Top Belgian White continue to outperform almost everything else in the MillerCoors and A-B InBev portfolios respectively. According to Symphony IRI, Blue Moon White climbed into the Top 15 brands in 2011, selling $88 million in supermarkets (by comparison, Sierra Nevada Pale Ale sold $52 million, Samuel Adams Boston Lager $47 million and New Belgium Fat Tire $33 million).

Blue Moon White was one of only two brands (Michelob Ultra was the other) in the top 15 to increase supermarket sales in 2011.

So I’m bumfuzzled why my feed reader is full of stories, actually the same story modified here and there, implying that six breweries closing so far this year could be the start of a trend. Hey, maybe 2012 is going to turn out to be a terrible year for small breweries, but it won’t be because these six breweries closed. (To be clear, I feel bad for the owners, investors and the poor souls who worked at these places. Mostly the people who worked there.)

I can’t tell you how much beer the breweries that closed sold last year. Those numbers are not available yet, but take a look at the 2010 sales listed below. Except for Buckbean, which did not report its production to the Brewers Association (and that might tell us something), so I had to go with 2009.

So let’s say that 80 breweries end up closing during 2012 and that they previously produced an average of 750 barrels a year — a number pretty much made up, I admit. So that’s what? 60,000 barrels out of the system. I’m pretty sure that Deschutes Brewery alone will grow that much in 2012.

Because this was the final post in a multi-part series, I hadn’t seen the first, which included a bit of an explanation: What follows is a list of stories that either resonated with Beernews.org readers or got coverage in the mainstream media. I guess I should have understood the story wasn’t just the substance of what Anthony Bourdain suggested — that “Big beer” was responsible for Discovery Channel pulling the plug on the Brew Masters program — but that he tweeted it and it got retweeted. A lot. This was made clear to me.

(In this case, my vision was clouded by the fact that Bourdain’s² tweet was as stupid as if he had typed “Harwood invented porter”³ and considerably more irresponsible. That’s really an aside, but I did a lousy job of explaining myself in the 140-character exchanges that followed.)

I’m not oblivious to the importance of social media (even though I might appear clueless trying to balance Twitter, Facebook and Google+), nor the importance of what proceeded these virtual water coolers — water coolers themselves. I worked at newspapers back when people spent enough time with them in the morning to get their hands inky black. I sat in on a dozen meetings a week during which we debated how and where to display stories that were “important” versus those that people were talking about around the water cooler.

These days there are ways for people to talk about stuff they really care about that didn’t exist before, and ways to track/measure those conversations. Is following them pandering or simply remembering the news consuming public ultimately decides what is news? That’s a discussion for another space. As well as one about what is news? or even what is beer news?

OK, a bit more about the last one, and a quick example of what one day can bring. Saint Louis Brewery founders Tom Schlafly and Dan Kopman announced last Wednesday that a group of local investors had bought a 60 percent (thus, controlling) interest in the brewery. This was not a surprise, because they said more than a year ago they were looking for buyers, and wanted the brewery to remain locally owned. The big picture news will come when we find out if the new owners plan to build another brewery, since the current one (pictured at the top) is at capacity. The same day, Paul Harden at The Wine and Cheese Place posted a note he had received a shipment of Firestone Walker Union Jack that had been bottled only a week before. That’s fresh IPA a 20-minute walk from my house. One a short term basis, just as big.

Coincidentally, a few days before I considered what do people read? from a different perspective. Because I spent not as much time around here the second half of December, rather than dumping comments Akismet flagged as spam on a daily basis I got to them every three days or so. There’s something startling about seeing 10,000 comments from users calling themselves names like acai berry pure, ugg and stealth hid pile up in less than three days. In the course of looking to see if there was any rhyme or reason to what posts attracted such love I ended up with a semi-accurate list of 2011 most popular posts. And no clue about the spammers.

The list is not perfect, because some/many of you read these posts via a feedreader, some when they are fresh, some when they are older. I’m too lazy to sort that out. You might notice some of the best read stuff is from years past. I’m not sure how I should feel about that.

Anyway, the list:

10. What the heck is a nano brewery?
9. Book review: Tasting Beer.
8. Pierre Celis: That was one long shadow.
7. So Americans no longer drink Budweiser?
6. 10 beers that changed America.
5. Who is the world’s most influential beer writer?
4. Blue Moon: Peter, Paul & Mary or Trini Lopez?
3. Reinheitsgebot or Einheitsgebot?
2. The beer that launched 1,600 breweries.
1. Session #49 – Regular beers are part of the revolution.

1 I should probably be able to do that for you, but I blame cognitive failure, being well past 45 years old.

2 That’s not to say I don’t find Bourdain entertaining. How can you not like a guy who appreciates Louisiana as much as he does? I’d be happy to spend a drunken afternoon with him.

3 See The Oxford Companion to Beer: a dreadful disaster? and scroll down to Harwood.

Given that Boston Beer Co., Sierra Nevada Brewing and New Belgium Brewing emerged as the Craft Big Three credit must go to Samuel Adams Boston Lager, Sierra Nevada Pale Ale and New Belgium Fat Tire.

But these aren’t the brands leading growth for those companies now. So it hardly seems a surprise that today Shanken News Daily reported sales of Samuel Adams seasonal beers² have surpassed the venerable Boston Lager. The seasonals are Octoberfest, Winter Lager, Noble Pils and Summer Ale (fall through summer).

So far this year, seasonal beers accounted for 25% of case sales, Boston Lager 24% and Twisted Tea Original 20%. Twisted Tea sales are up 36% for the year, with Twisted Tea Half & Half growing 52% (off a smaller base).

Previously, you’ll recall, Shanken’s Impact Databank reported that Fat Tire accounted for 70% of New Belgium sales in 2008, 67% in 2009 and 60% in 2010. And that Sierra Nevada Pale Ale sales slipped from 76% of the company’s total in 2009 to 71% in 2010.

Diversity indeed.

¹For the sake of simplicity, the Brewers Association definition.

²Through Oct. 2 in food, drug and convenience stores, so this doesn’t take draft sales into account.

But a new game has arrived to fill the void, the FBAG 2011 Brewery Pick’em Contest. So put down that beer judging glass, Jay Brooks, and get your entry in before the Thursday deadline.

Although the rules for the FBAG 2011 Brewery Pick’em Contest look a little scary I like the “here’s what you have to spend” concept (probably taken from some sports related competition I’ve never seen). This way everybody who wants to can own Jeff Bagby. Not just the player lucky enough to get him via draft.

I won’t be participating (having retired after Bagby and Flying Dog ran roughshod in 2009) so I’ll pass along two quick suggestions for filling out a roster after spending $26-$30 upfront. AC Golden hardly qualifies as a sleeper after four medals the last two years, but the small brewery inside of Coors’ giant brewery has expanded its lineup. And how can Sun King (winner at the World Beer Cup and GABF last year) still be only a buck?

Also, I stand by last night’s tweet. If Marble Brewery (which has to break through one of these years) or Urban Chestnut Brewing (new this year, and in judging only) were on the list they’d make great $1 choices.

Problem is the first example is Budweiser. Yes, sales shrunk 30 percent in five years, and that amounts to 7 million barrels (at 31 gallons a barrel) lost. But A-B InBev still sold 18 million barrels of Bud. So it’s not like nobody drinks it.

Beyond the questionable headline the numbers from 24/7 Wall St. are quite interesting; most notably the demise of Michelob. And the 72 percent drop in sales from 2006 to 2010 to 175,000 barrels just begins to tell the story.

Look deeper and you’ll find that in 1988 Michelob commanded 66 percent of the “super-premium” category (the beers people pay more for, like “microbrews” today) despite losing 46 percent of its sales between 1980 and 1988. Anheuser-Busch sold sold 8 million barrels of Michelob in 1980, 4.3 million in 1988.

And last year 175,000.

I’m trying to figure out how to put that in perspective. How about this? It took A-B only eight days in 1980 to sells a much Michelob as it sold in all of 2010.

The data is primarily for packaged goods sold in supermarkets, convenience stores and big box stores but there’s no reason to believe it would be different if you tossed in, say, beer sold on draft in pubs and bars. Officially, “seasonal” is the No. 1 craft beer style, but that’s another discussion.

In his “Craft Brewing & Mid-Year Category Sales Review” Dan Wandel of Symphony IRI told Brewers Association members that IPA sales increased 39 percent in the first half of the year, continuing an ongoing trend that moved it past Pale Ale. He also said that IRI now tracks 253 IPA brands, up 76 in the last six months.

As well as reporting the basic facts (craft beer dollar sales increased 14.3 percent in the first six months, but sales of Blue Moon and Shock Top beers are growing even faster) Waddell took a look at what else beer drinkers buy when they go shopping for their favorite brands.

When craft beers are in a shopping basket there’s a good chance that imported wine will be. Products such as natural cheese, fresh cut salad, yogurt, orange juice and canned tomatoes also index highly. When other beer is in the basket there’s a much higher chance cigarettes, processed cheese slices and frozen pizza will be.

And we wonder how stereotypes get formed.

It’s been several years since Russian River Brewing co-founder Vinnie Cilurzo introduced the notion of “Lupulin Shift” and, in fact, he was talking about graduating from very hoppy beers to still hoppier ones.

I thought of this today as I was catching up on my reading, in this case an interview with Ken Grossman of Sierra Nevada Brewing from Shanken News Daily. In it he reiterated what we already knew: Sierra Nevada Torpedo Extra IPA is hot, with sales up 40 percent this year.

Just like at New Belgium, where Ranger IPA has lead growth and the well known Fat Tire Amber Ale has become a little bit less of a flagship. According to Impact Databank, Fat Tire accounted for 70 percent of New Belgium sales in 2008, 67 percent in 2009 and 60 percent in 2010. The biggest change last year was the introduction of Ranger IPA. New Belgium sold more than 50,000 barrels of it in 2010, 8 percent of production.

Sales of Sierra Nevada Pale Ale grew 1 percent in 2010, while overall production increased almost 9 percent (to 779,000 barrels). Thus, SNPA accounted for more than 76 percent of sales in 2009, and less than 71 percent in 2010.

A sign that a wider population of beer drinkers is now following a path littered with hop cones?

First, Wikio.* I’ve included the previous month’s ranking in parenthesis, a la Jay Brooks. If I understand the note from Florian Saugues at Wikio correctly Jay will post the rankings regularly beginning next month. Makes sense, since his blog is consistently No. 1 or No. 2 — why not put the list where the most people will see it? — and he always has a bit of interesting commentary.

Ranking made by Wikio

Second, who’s got Klout? Nope, I hadn’t heard of Klout either, but according to Klout itself, it measures overall online influence, using “over 35 variables on Facebook and Twitter to measure True Reach, Amplification Probability* and Network Score.”

* “Amplification Probability is the likelihood that your content will be acted upon. The ability to create content that compels others to respond and high-velocity content that spreads into networks beyond your own is a key component of influence.” Duck — here comes some high velocity content.

Anyway, Klout’s list of “Top 10 Influencers On Beer.” I’ve inserted links for Twitter pages. You are on your own with Facebook. The categories are Klout’s.

1   Mariah Calagione (thought leader)
2   Ashley Routson (thought leader)
3   Lee Williams (thought leader)
4   Sierra Nevada Beer (networker)
5   Magic Hat Brewing (broadcaster)
6   Victory Brewing (broadcaster)
7   Flying Dog Brewery (networkers)
8   AbbeyStMartin Beer (specialist)
9   DRAFT Magazine: Beer (thought leader)
10 Beer 47 (networker)

Third, Fred, hops and a few of my friends. Another party I’ll be missing this year would be the 2011 North American Beer Bloggers Conference. I do wish I could be spend August 19-21 in Portland, Oregon. And I know I get no sympathy from you when I explain I’ll be getting up early in Wolnzach, Germany, to begin the long trip home after three-plus weeks of hop-related research in England, Germany, the Czech Republic and Slovenia.

But, dang, it would be nice to hear what Fred Eckhardt has to tell beer bloggers. And to make the trip down to the hop fields (no, its simply not possible to spend to0 much time hanging out with hop farmers). And to figure out if the PDX Beer Bloggers Twitter feed has any earthly value.

Fact is that as New Belgium drives deeper into the East Coast this year it will be Fat Tire drinkers ask for first. (Witness this photo taken in South Carolina before New Belgium entered the state. The owners posted the sign in self defense.)

Some interesting figures emerged last week in the run up to the brewery’s twentieth anniversary on Tuesday. Although overall production increased 13% last year, to 661,000 31-gallon barrels, Fat Tire sales grew only 2%.

According to Impact Databank, Fat Tire accounted for 70% of New Belgium sales in 2008, 67% in 2009 and 60% in 2010. The biggest change last year was the introduction of Ranger IPA. New Belgium sold more than 50,000 barrels in 2010, 8% of production, more Ranger IPA than its well known neighbor, Odell Brewing, made in total.